The 50 day MA for SLV is at $15.92 today, about 60 cents away from the current price. At typical sharp pullback, like the one that occurred in May 2016 (in the middle or a rip-roaring rally in metals and miners), saw SLV go 11.7% lower before it turned up again. In today’s prices, that same pullback would put SLV at around $16.20, so only 30 cents away, and I would be fine buying there. It’s important to know that after the correction of almost 12%, the next month of June 2016, SLV rallied 17%, dna gained again the month after, bringing the total gain to 27% after the correction, well worth trying to catch. The past is no guarantee, but nothing in trading and investing is truly guaranteed, it´s all just making wise bets based on probabilities.

I don’t know when or from where my miners will turn higher again, but I am confident that they will.

Just a day later, and everything that was bouncing not only closed on the lows yesterday, but made new lows for the pullback today! I am worried? No. Do I like it? No, except that I took the opportunity to add a little to my positions this morning, and will put in larger orders to buy if GDX gets down to the $26.20 area. That seems as good a place as any to start taking shares off the hands of capitulating bulls. Let’s take a look at the charts…

While these charts suggest there could be more short term weakness, it should be bought, as the miners are clearly in an uptrend. To quote well-known commodities investor Rick Rule, ¨this bull is more typical of bull markets, and we should expect to keep grinding higher¨. It is when we see blowoff type moves that go vertical, that signals we are near the end of the bull. For now, expect two steps forward, one step back, hopefully for several years to come.

Also of note, I see the TLT 20 yr treasury bond etf is down 5.5% this week, a rather large move for bonds. I wonder what the Fed is thinking before their meeting next Wednesday? See the weekly chart below…

Just a quick post as I have been expecting the short term selloff to slow down in miners, then turn higher once again. We are at that point today, as I type this morning gold is up $21 and silver is up 30 cents so far (2%). I was asked how high and fast I think miners will bounce, but my answer is always the same, I have no idea and we will assess it as it comes. It’s possible the rally is so sharp that my monthly charts tell me to sell in several weeks, though that is not a high probability. It’s also possible we get a very weak bounce that rolls over quickly so miners can head lower and seek out an intermediate cycle low, but again this is not very high probability. If we are in the stage of the metals bull market I think we are in, we should get a decent bounce, then some more grinding sideways or a little lower, before grinding higher once again. The important thing is to remain invested until we get our signal to exit, and not leave the table any sooner or later just because emotions are leaning on us. I will keep you posted to changes, but so far all I have done is add some small portions more to our SILJ and MUX, with the hopes we saw lower prices to make more substantial buys. In any case, we have more shares than ever for the next move up, which looks to be starting now.

While I might very well be early buying because the WEEKLY charts are not yet into oversold territory, the daily charts have reached oversold. If one believes this is a true bull market, then the thing to do is buy into these sharp drops, as timing mistakes will be corrected in a bull market, and who knows, we might just get the bottom. My plan is to add bigger positions as the mining etfs get into the oversold zone on the WEEKLY charts. It’s not the signal or the indicator that is the secret to making money, that part is actually quite easy, it’s the discipline to stay focused on the bigger picture (bull market), while making decisions in the short term from what the indicators are telling us to do.

I am aware that many gurus are suggesting miners are headed lower for a month or two, in fact most of them are doing this. I would not buy more on this contrarian thought alone, but it’s good to be invested with the big, long term trend, an especially when it is against the short term consensus. I like where my portfolios stand.

What do you know, just after I finally get around to writing about the blast higher in silver, a day or two later it’s pulled back 8.1%! Bull markets can correct quickly, sharply, and painfully. While I won’t pretend to know if just a two day smashing is enough and that SLV will head higher from here, I can say that the enormous volume suggests we are closer to finding the bottom than not. I might look to add some long term LEAP options on SLV n the next few trading days, maybe as early as Monday. One reason is the volume, but the other is that the last time SLV was in such a strong uptrend was back in 2016, when the metals and miners screamed higher, but even then there was a sharp correction in the month of May 2016. For SLV, it meant a retreat of 11.7% if I recall correctly, and it took place over a couple weeks. If anything similar occurs, we are nearing another chance to add to positions, or take on new ones like the SLV LEAP options, or maybe some more silver miners. As always, the account statements don’t lie, so you will know what trades I decided to make.

One last note, it wasn’t just SLV with monster volume, but speculative trading vehicles like JDST, the short gold miners triple leveraged etf has also had a record breaking volume day yesterday. This fund is used for short term traders, and they are often trading on emotions more than anything else. Again, this is another sign we are closer to the bottom of the correction than not. Perhaps we see another couple days lower next week, but I will be looking to add to my positions into the weakness. If they are not weak, I will wait for a bounce that peters out and pulls back again, before adding. If miners and metals just open higher and run straight out of the gate on Monday (not my prediction), I will not chase prices, instead just keep all my positions are they are. See the chart below…

While it may appear that gold is getting overbought on the monthly chart, I caution against taking profits too early. Yes, stochastics are overbought, and yes, we are up 5 months in a row now, but one cannot have any idea how far a strong bull can run. It is not a prediction, but GLD could double the move it has already made from here, and do it in very short order. That still would not even put it into new all time highs, which becomes more of a certainty with each passing day. The point is to stay in your trade until whatever system you used to get you in, is now telling you to get out. My indicators are extended but that does not mean I exit because they can stay that way for long periods of time, like another 5 months for example of similar action. Again, my emotions tell me to book profits soon, but I will stick with my plan regardless of how I feel, and for now the discipline tells me to stay on the bull.

Do I risk giving some profits back? Yes, but that is part of the game. Play big, or go home, because hopping in and out for dinky gains and losses gets a trader nowhere. We need conviction in everything we do, and that doesn’t mean stay in a trade forever, it means have the conviction to stick to your rules no matter what comes your way.

First, a quick note on the GDX mining etf. Today it closed at a new high, eclipsing the 2016 high, and confirming that 2016 was the beginning of new bull which is now back in full swing. I have lots to cover here because I haven’t been posting much with all the action in the markets staying healthy in the gym, etc. Suffice to say, I haven’t added or sold anything since the last post which asked if that was a pullback to buy. We now know it was. It think putting the next few days or week aside, it is very significant that gold and miners are making new highs and it suggests more is to come on the upside. Let’s get to the charts…

Week after week the precious metals and miners take turns leading the run into new high territory. This is a move not to be missed. I would not be buying into this sharp up movement, but if I were not fully invested and on sizable margin, I would be buying into dips that bring miners into oversold stochastics on the daily charts, or for those more conservative, on the weekly charts, which might occur in the next month or two. Until then, bulls stuck on the sidelines will find it painful to watch this rally work higher. To verify my trading claims, please see the account statements to back it up. I haven’t sold a share yet, but will let readers know when I do.

If some weakness can creep back into the general stock market, I suspect the afterburners will kick in on all the above and anything related. The gale force winds are at gold’s back, so don’t make the error of selling too early!

Just a quick note as I need to prepare for action today, after not having to do much the last few weeks. It looks like this is going to be another rough day for my accounts, but in that there is opportunity and that is where I will focus. I need to review the exact levels at which I want to add, but they are around the 50 day MA’s and or the 50% retracement fib levels. I recall this weekend they didn’t match up exactly, with around a half dollar difference between the two on several of the silver miner etfs, for example, so in between those two figures is good enough for me.
SIL is a bit tougher bc the 50 MA is up at $27.14, but the 50% retracement is down near $26, and the old highs are in the $27 to $27.50 level, so this once had a big range where it could find a bottom, tough to narrow it down as it looks to open near the 50 MA this morning, already traded at $27.19 If the other etfs can get into the same areas near the fib and 50 MA, then I will take it as time to add more heavily since I don’t believe the bull is done.

I am using SIL as a an example this morning because it is the largest of all the silver miner etfs. If I get time I will post the SILJ chart, since that is likely where I will be doing my buying this week. It is always best when several different but related vehicles are confirming the same thing, thus my examination of SIL this morning.

Long story short, as we can see in the chart we are coming down to levels that will not only work off the overbought levels and sentiments, but also might offer support. These become areas to buy or add, as long as one still has conviction in the bull market, that is all we have to ask ourselves, is it still on? I think it is. For those tab, my accounts are still nicely higher with a big cushion of unrealized gains which allow me to be aggressive and push for more. Let’s see how it works out, but for now I am on record as I will be adding this week, likely today (Monday) and maybe a few more days as well. I will keep readers posted, and as always, the statements never lie so everything can be verified! Why don’t all advisors, newsletter writers, etc just post their statements, not excel spreadsheets they fill in, I’m talking actual statements?

I haven’t sold anything yet, I don’t like to sell just because we’ve had a nice rally or other thoughts creep into my head that are hard to gauge. For example, we all agree 20% in a month is a great return, and not typical, so its easy to rationalize booking such a gain. However, if one took the first 20% they made in 2016, they would have felt good for about a week at most, then been kicking themselves the next 7 months. No doubt that was an outlier, but all monster markets are outliers, and they also happen to be where the big money is made so I try to stay on the ride until whatever signals got me into the trade are now telling me to exit. I will admit there are many times this method has me riding a modest gain back to nothing or even a small loss, but this way also keeps me in for the big ones that come along every now and then. I believe it is these big bulls that make all the difference over time. I am in no way a permabull though many will think that bc they choose to sell earlier vs press for more. One nice thing about this approach is days like last week’s FOMC and the day after where the volatility seems unbearable, I was nowhere close to getting a sell signal for the same things I used to get into the trade, so by definition I had to stay in the trade, which we now know with hindsight was a good thing. In fact I added small amounts here and there when the selling brought several of my positions down to levels I had wanted to add before anyway, I only wish I had placed bigger orders since they ripped higher so soon after, but those trades are just fun while really being negligible to the results overall. So I remain heavily long on margin, haven’t done anything but buy to add here and there small amounts to current positions. My indicators are nothing special, everybody uses the same ones or even better ones, the only difference I see is I refuse to cash out for any other reason than those same indicators telling me to do so. I might get bashed pretty hard again in this bull, probably and maybe soon, but it I don’t get the sell signal then I remain confident there will be higher prices in the future, and at a minimum, and the bull will let me out at better prices than if I sell into weakness in an overall bull market. That is the only way to lose money in a bull. The swings are huge both ways in P+L, and often all I have to hang my hat on is that I am being disciplined because it looks like a reversal, or bad news, or whatever new information comes out, so it can be uncomfortable at times, but its given me the best results over time.

This was just a quick post to catch up, and say I will be posting more frequently as the volatility tones down. There have been many things to write about, the FOMC’s first interest rate cut in 11 years, the spike lower in miners which I did some buying, adding to current holdings with some “stink bids”, shake-outs I have managed to avoid, etc. I intend to post very soon after I make changes in my accounts, or see other ideas setting up, but the writing game is new to me, and to be honest, not my favorite thing in the world. I love investing and trading successfully more than any other endeavor, but will do my best to make posting here a habit. Look for more material this week, I have several topics to cover as well as some potential trades setting up, as we are now seeing the general stock market show weakness for the first time since late 2018. Also, because so many people tell us how great they did, after the fact, offering no proof of their success, I plan to post my account statements on this site so that anybody can easily verify the moves I’ve made and the results they have yielded. I am not yet sure how I want to do this because I really do cherish my privacy, its one big reason I chose this career, success does not have to bring fame, which I like since I want nothing to do with fame. In fact, I have debated using my real name here, or not, and think it is unnecessary, if I am posting actual brokerage statements from an account or two that I manage for friends and family. Keep in mind, as I have stated in earlier posts, I am no longer a registered investment advisor so these reports would be from accounts of friends, family, or possibly my own, after I block out the names for privacy. Another idea is to keep the statements aside in my possession, and only email them to people that are serious enough to take the time and write an email to me requesting them, rather than let them out there for every clown in the world to do what they want with them. I will let you know when I decide, but rest assured that what I say here is what I do, and I will never lie or distort the truth. Dealing in numbers makes that easy, they don’t lie! It amazes me how many advisors with self-proclaimed awesome returns, never have any proof whatsoever. How could anybody know if they were real or not? This is why I feel it’s necessary not just to tell readers or post spreadsheets they have made themselves, but to show them actual statements from their brokers. Stay tuned!

Forgive my chart not showing the down-trend line from the mid June high until last Friday, my chart service wouldn’t allow me to save the annotated chart, but it’s easy enough to identify on the above chart. You might ask why I post a chart of the silver etf SLV? Some have been concerned in the recent metals rally that silver has not kept up with gold, and this is true for the moment. Then days like to today start to occur and silver outpaces gold, and with the trendline break higher, it can bring in more buyers that were waiting for confirmation before getting involved.

The break higher doesn’t mean we can’t pull back in the near term, but it does mean that would be a buying opportunity if it occurred. We still have the overbought daily stochastics in miners to contend with, trying to pull them lower to correct, but I am happy with how the leading GDX and GDXJ etfs hang right up by their 52 weeks highs. There don’t seem to be many sellers, so once we stop the train and let a few nervous bulls off, it looks like the miners are building steam for the next push higher. I remain all long and on margin in SILJ, MUX, WPM, NVO.V, IRVRF and others, looking to add into corrections when they occur.