With KWEB now down over 40% from its all time highs, I can’t see how owning the best and biggest technology companies in China will prove to be a mistake. Earlier I posted a daily chart as I was buying to add to my LEAP calls on KWEB, now I’m posting a weekly chart to show the longer term view. It looks to me like we should be coming into support in this area, but if not, my stops will limit the losses. It could take awhile to turn higher again, but since this signal is on a MONTHLY buy (along with the shorter time frames), I expect to be in this trade for 6-10 months, possibly a little longer.

Its odd the Chinese leaders have been hit with a full blown bear market, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just hit new all time highs today. This is not typical action, there might be something lurking under the surface that is bigger than I can imagine, but that’s the great thing about trading, its just taking the odds when they are in your favor. Limit our risk, and open our upside.

I made this post because I have placed “stink bids” to add to my LEAPS. That is where we pick a price away from the market that won’t likely get filled, but if it does, we got a great price (or a low price, I should say, since we don’t know if its great or not until the trade is closed!). Members should check my Stops tab, and Daily Account Statements to see changes in overall position sizes, adjusted stop levels, and how the positions are doing since I started accumulating. If I get any fills, the new additions and average prices paid will show up in those tabs. All changes are in the ACTUAL account statements, there should be nothing to hide from a person asking for your trust, that is why I put the statements out there for my subscribers to see the facts.

After a 20% spike in one day last week, UROY (Uranium Royalty Corp.) has been down several days in a row, take peek at the daily chart. I am still working into full position on this one, so welcome the pullback, but might have to adjust my “full position size” if the volatility stays elevated. This would force me to bring down the number of shares I intend to own, but for now I am keeping things as originally planned. I will update the stop levels and desired position size in the tabs above, for subscribers to the site. You can also see my total position sizes and unrealized gains and losses under the Daily Account Statements tab. I was up on UROY, now sitting on a slight loss, but still looking to get bigger position.

Long time readers know how important position sizing is, in fact its the most important aspect of any trading plan. This stock illustrates the point perfectly, had I been already too heavy in the trade, this pullback might shake me out (stop me out), rather than being viewed as an opportunity. Of course, as always its the size of my orders and positions that matter most, so keep up with me on the tabs mentioned above, they are critical to a trader and wile different for each individual, very similar in many ways no matter who makes the trade. The principles fo risk control apply to everybody!

I added to my KWEB etf LEAPS again, as I work up to a full-sized position. No need for a chart, just posted one yesterday, and the etf continues lower by another 1% or so. Members should check the Stops tab and Daily Account Statement to see my full position sizes and prices I will stop out if things drop to those levels.

URNM, the uranium etf, looks like its breaking down to new correction lows today. I’ll post a chart because I’ve been waiting for a buy signal in this group to add to my UROY (Uranium Royalty Corp). The time to buy is getting closer.

Newer issues like NOVRF can be harder to manage entries and exits, as there is less data to paint the charts with sufficient information, so as to make more reliable decisions. That does not mean we can take a trade, just that we have discipline with regards to position size and stop out levels, but we should ALWAYS be disciplined in any case anyway. I will re-post the daily chart here for those that missed it recently, because I stepped in as planned to add to my copper royalty NOVRF today.

As always, members should check my adjusted stop levels for the position, as well as my overall position size and unrealized gains and losses in my daily account statements posted on the site. Please take advantage, as nobody I know of that writes newsletters like this publishes their REAL positions each day, in an account statement. For some reason, the closest they come is to type it on the site, but that is just more work and subject to fudging the numbers, so make no sense at all for a legitimate trader to make extra work for himself. That is, unless they are getting a benefit by telling others his trade price (and they NEVER mention POSITION SIZE, the single most important aspect to any trader’s results), meaning they wait all day to post then pick the optimal price to report to subscribers, instead of the actual price paid!

So the story is the same with NOVRF and the reasons I want to own it. I also find the CEO to be informative and entertaining, though I would not buy a stock just on those observations alone. His name is EB Tucker, and he has many video interviews out there on youtube, for those that are interested. When I get some free time, I will post some of the videos here for readers. Here is the daily Nova Royalty Corp chart, once again.

As stated in previous posts, I have been patiently waiting to add to my KWEB etf that represents the biggest and best chinese internet companies. I will admit I dont like how hard the stock is pulling back, I prefer it to be more soft and controlled, but the etf is getting clobbered several days in a row now. That alone is not enough to change my opinion on the trade, but also it warrants paying attention and having a clear, defined stop out level. Members can check my stop-out levels for all holdings, as well as total position sizes and unrealized P+L in my daily account statements. One a trade like this, it pays to know when you will get out to cut losses.

For now we are not near that area, so its still time to accumulate. It could also be this shrap pullback is a gift, giving us much better entry prices on the remainder of our buys. I bought LEAP calls on KWEB that expire in Jan 2023, so I have lots of time in case it takes awhile for a strong uptrend to resume. I like lots of time to expiry when buying options, since things can take longer than we would like, at times. I still have room to add more in the context of my limited total risk numbers, which are taken into account when determining my stop-out levels. Here is the KWEB daily chart again.

I’m not thrilled with how the miners opened higher this morning, then sold off until midday so far, but I’m going ahead and adding to a winner (MUX) while its pulling back. The CEO announced some interesting news this morning, and while I am not adding because of the news, I think it is a big positive for the stock going forward. MUX shareholders have not been rewarded with a proper valuation of the company’s copper deposit in Argentina, so Mr McEwen is going to separate the companies into two different entities, we will still have McEwen Mining that focuses on precious metals, and now we ill get a piece of McEwen Copper, expected to be out sometime this year.

MUX stock has held up well this year, and since I’m up nicely already, and love adding to winning positions, today seems a good a day as any to buy more. Members can check my daily account statements to see exactly how much I added, how much I have overall, my unrealized gain amount, and they can check for my stop out levels where I will exit the trade if it moves lower. Daily chart below:

Today I want to put up a quick post of my intentions for Tuesday morning, as the markets are closed in the US on Monday, for the July 4th holiday. I will look for a window to add to both the KWEB etf (Chinese internet giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu), and NOVRF (Nova Royalty Corp). I might also add to some miners here and there, since I think we might be near an intermediate cycle low, if not we are at least at a daily cycle low. This means that we should have to pay higher prices if we want to wait to add for a week or two. If there isn’t much pullback, and the bull’s uptrend just starts higher from here, adding now seems like an even better risk/reward bet.

Please note the charts I’m posting are two different time frames. I typically like longer term charts and trades as they are more predictable and have larger potential gains, but at times we use shorter term charts like I’m doing with NOVRF today, since its a relatively new issue so doesn’t have enough data to fill the monthly charts (and weekly too, in this case). However, NOVRF is oversold on those time frames as well, so this is still a longer term (6-10 months) expected hold time for me, in order to realize the full potential of the trade signal.

Moving onto KWEB, this etf can really move so I adjust position size accordingly in order to manage risk. I have posted the monthly chart today since this one has “fully painted” charts, being its been around awhile. I expect this to be a 6-10 month hold time as well, being its most oversold on that time frame, but a trader could take the trade for a shorter time as well, I just find it best to push for the full gains when I have a signal working out as planned. Taking profits too soon is a huge mistake, in my opinion. One of the hardest parts of trading is when we have a nice gain on something, but are expecting a near term correction. These can be hard to hold through, but to win the big gains and find your true worth in this business, its a necessary step to learn to hold winners.

There are times when I hold a long term trade setup longer than the 10 months I originally expected, but we will cover that when it arises, because it’s not that often I am in a trade of ANY time frame setup much longer than the original expected hold time. If I had to guess, I would say besides positions that stop me out, I stay in winners for the time I originally expected around 90% of the time.

I like to take a step back and examine ratio charts on occasion. They can give us a broad sense of what to expect with one group of stocks vs another. Let’s take a look at the GDX big-cap miner etf vs. the S&P 500 etf (SPY). Here is a weekly chart, suggesting that for at least the next 6-10 weeks, GDX should outperform the SPY etf on a relative basis.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but I like to have charts like this on my side. It might not play out like this, but it looks as if the GDX is going to do better than the SPY, and the only thing I don’t like is the MACD is turning negative. So what does that mean and how to I factor it into my trading? I temper my expectations when some indicators are in conflict with others, so while I think GDX will do better overall for the next couple months, I also realize the outperformance might be tempered somewhat, since the MACD is just starting to probe the downside. Note the RSI is also into oversold territory now as well, so Im thinking the GDX won’t likely go down much more than the S&P500 in the near term, and the GDX might go up much more than the SPY. If I wanted to trim some holdings after the FOMC announcement recently that crushed the metals and miners, as many people are looking to do, I would still be waiting for a setup like we see in the chart above. There is usually a better time to exit than in panic mode caused by news events, and now we are getting that window of opportunity to sell something soon, if that was out intention (it’s not mine, but many are now afraid the fundamentals have changed so want to sell some). I don’t think the fundamentals have changed at all, I also don’t think the story from the FOMC is changing at all, other than to manage expectations, pushing on this side for a moment, then pushing on the other side a little, in order to try and sail straight!

Yesterday I posted that I was looking to add to NOVRF (Nova Royalty Corp) and UROY (Uranium Royalty Corp). I intended to add to NOVRF before the close of trading, but had internet problems in the afternoon and wasn’t able to access my accounts, charts, or other tools I use, so I just packed it in for the day. Turns out it was good luck, as the NOVRF shares I’m buying are about 4% cheaper today. I like discounts, so maybe I got lucky, but we won’t know until we see where the stock is next week! lol

To know my overall position sizes, buy prices, and unrealized gains and losses, just check the link in the side bar. Not many will post their real numbers, and I shouldn’t have to tell you why that is the case, when all they want is to prove they are credible. Its simple, if you expect somebody to believe your claims, and have a simple way to prove your claims, such as account and activity statements, there is no reason at all that these “gurus” should not post their statements! Forget crying about privacy, a newsletter writer is asking for your trust and has an easy way to justify it by posting their transactions, so there is no justifiable excuse to do otherwise. Here is the latest daily chart on NOVRF, and yes, it looks ugly. I am not sure I will make money on this trade or not, but it really doesn’t matter, all that matters is my accounts make gains overall, over longer periods of time. This attitude and sentiment allows me to have room, while I wait for a trade to do its thing, and hopefully put some money in my accounts!

In my prior post I addressed the Uranium stocks and the URNM etf. I now see that UROY (Uranium Royalty Corp) is up 7% on the day, and NOVRF (Nova Royalty Corp), the copper and nickel royalty has turned positive, now up 2% on the day after being heavily red this morning. NOVRF has been in a strong downtrend after a phenomenal debut and run when the stock came public. I often look for reversal days like today to show some interest coming into the stock, a potential floor and turning point, which would be an ideal place to add to my position if that turns out to be the case. Until now I have only had a small starter position to keep me focused on the upcoming opportunity, which appears might now be close at hand. Lets look at the chart of NOVRF, we already talked about UROY in recent posts.

Note the reversal on today´s candle, from weak to strong all in a few hours. Also see the MACD about to turn positive, as the RSI is just coming out of oversold. I prefer the COPX etf(copper miners) looked more similar to NOVRF, which would lend even more credibility to this setup, but NOVRF being a relatively new issue is excused from some scrutiny as it can march to its own tune for awhile until it gets more seasoned. In this case, its own oversold technicals in stochastics and RSI, combined with the strong reversal candle, are enough to step into more shares of this copper royalty play. Bonus, NOVRF is also oversold on the weekly stochastics.

Verify my buys and sells, prices, position sizes etc in the link on the side. There you will also find total position sizes, not just the recent size of buys or sells, and unrealized gains and losses and totals invested.