During the time between my last post and yesterday, I have continued buying back miner shares that I sold back in late January. The summer doldrums have kept a lid on things, and while the downtrend has has not broken, and my purchases appear to have been early, I am happy to say that they aren’t much below my entry prices, since it was the spike lower in that week of June 6th that I got started buying again. Now that summer is winding up, and the technicals have gotten back into sync suggesting a move higher is imminent, I have been busy again this week adding mining shares, enough so that the accounts I manage are back up to 84% invested, with only 16% cash left to deploy. I also initiated my first buys in the Uranium mining sector, with names like CCJ, NXE, DNN, UEC, UUUU, PALAF, URG, and DYL.AX, and will look to build up the positions.

With the new chairman’s first rate decision out of the way as of Wednesday, and after a strong up day for both precious metals and uranium miners yesterday (Thursday), I believe the stage is set for a decent rally or more, over the next 6-10 weeks into late September or early October. For now I only have my BUY cap on for the next few days, and will wait to see how strong the rally is, to decide if I will trim into this next intermediate move higher, and how much to sell if I do any selling. One thing to keep in mind is that technology stocks seem to be rolling over finally. That could eventually be a source of funds that flow into miners and metals and support them, but initially I would expect our holdings to get dragged lower as everything gets tossed out in the early stage of a bear market if there is panic. I don’t know if a raging bear is around the corner, but I know we are invested the best group to fight it, and eventually benefit from a capital rotation event.

For now just a quick weekly chart of the $HUI index. Recall that I don’t treat trend lines as specific points that matter, so I draw them the way I can best see the bigger picture. Some insist on only touching thetip of each wick, others place their lies where they have the most contact points, even if each top goes over the trend line for a short while, but to me I just want to see the obvious trend direction and slope from across the room, and when that line is broken, to expect a move in the opposite direction. In my experience these lines get tested and “broken” all the time, only to come back and get into the trend again. Its the clear and obvious breaks that cause me to take note.

By my measure, HUI isn’t there just yet as I type, but a strong close to this week, or upside next week, will be a sign this pullback is over for now. The move lower has extended long enough consiering the seasonal tendencies, and the many very oversold technicals such as stochastics and MACD, sentiment too is in the dumps. The window won’t be open for long, but seems to me this is a good time to increase exposure.

I started buying miners again today. I might be early, since everything was crashing today, but the areas I have been focusing on came into important support zones after a substantial 4-5 month correction in the roaring bull market. Seasonally, we could still have a few more weeks of weakness in the miners, but today it became time to start buying again. I added almost across the board to my mid-cap producers and a few juniors, as well as the SILJ and SLVR etfs.

I will let the charts do the talking. Remember that lines, whether a moving average, trend line, or support/resistance, are only areas to consider. A true break does not happen in the instant something crosses the line, it can only be known some time after if the break was true or not. The point is that far more often than not, resistance and support hold up, rather than continuing into a new trading zone. Let’s take a look at the SILJ daily chart first.

Now we step back and take a peek at the weekly $HUI chart of the gold miners.

Pretty clear to see this is the time to take positions, and add to our winners. Whether today was THE bottom or not remains to be seen, as we have some conflicting signals, which means we should be prepared with nerves for further downside in case it occurs. However, one can never be 100% sure, we can only play the probabilities. I am comfortable starting to buy in size here, after selling roughly 60% a day or two before the highs in late January. I expect we will have to wait awhile for momentum to return to the upside, and I even hope for lower prices to keep buying, but I was busy today acquiring my favorite positions to hold for the remainder of the bull market.

After violent moves like we have seen in the last year for Silver, it helps to step back and look at the longer-term charts. This gives us clarity by helping understand when a bull has more upside, or its time to look elsewhere for opportunities, even short the very things we rode higher! The PSLV etf chart below should make it clear, not only was the breakout significant, but also notice how well its price stays elevated in the face of downtrending stochastics. The relative strength is screaming that there is much more upside.

What we don’t know is when exactly it will begin to move higher with force again. However, if one has proper position sizes in relation to their risk tolerance, we don’t need to know when exactly, just knowing it will go much higher and soon enough, such as the stochastics reach oversold in next month or two, is enough to give us strong hands. As Rick Rule says, a good investment is when you can ask WHEN might it occur, rather than IF it will occur? On that note, he has been a buyer of silver miners recently, a few months into this big pullback, and so have we.

Now that Silver and the miners have pulled back sharply, I am looking to invest in the miners again over the near term. I actually bought back some SILJ, SLVR, ASM, SBSW, AAGFF, and few others on Friday, but so far these are smaller purchases. If they continue the downward momentum early next week, I will double what I have just re-invested, as Silver was down almost $13 last week, and is far closer to support areas I like that it’s high at $120. I will also buy the recognizable names like CDE, HL, PAAS, and WPM along with some juniors that have been decimated in the pullback, some dropped more than 50%!

I will buy a lot more if SILJ can drop to its 12 month MA, only a few dollars away now, as the MA should be up near $24 by April 1, the new monthly print. See below the weekly stochastics are nearing oversold, lets wee how they look when next weeks starts, but the MACD weekly might still need some time to repair. I hope to be more fully invested before next Q1 earnings reports start being reported for miners in mid-May, as these will be their best reports in history. So, I am patiently waiting to get “heavy” again, and realize, even hope that my buys on Friday were early, and their prices drop a little further and run some more time down on the clock. In any case, another great buying opportunity lies in here somewhere, but as always, the most important part of any bet is the position sizes one take. I will stick to 3% total portfolio risk on these entries, and might even look to take some profits one the earnings news when they come out. In other words, this trade is likely not the long term buy and hold I advocated early in the bull, rather a trade around the intermediate cycles that last just a few months. I still think the general stock market is going to have a much deeper pullback (maybe after a short rally first because already oversold), and this could drag down the metals and miners for a better long-term entry again, maybe late in the year, like October or November. Then will look to buy and hold again for the remainder of the bull, which should still have a few years in it, and big percentage gains. It might take a little while, but I fully expect the metals and miners to make new all-time highs before the bull is finished.

And note this next chart is already over one week old, as the $CDNX closed Friday down at 911

So the juniors already broke that trendline, not good, but now lets look at the daily, where we see the $CDNX already at its 200 day MA, as good a time to try buys as any.

Readers know I am looking to re-deploy funds and profits taken last week. While the metals and miners have already pulled back in price to levels I consider attractive, I am waiting for more time to pass, as corrections are usually functions of both price and time. With price objectives met, I will wait for some time to pass, with the plan that if prices come back down to this area after 6-10 weeks (assuming they bounce soon, then drop again), or if prices just go sideways overall for a few weeks while technicals reset, then I will be ready to buy heavily again.

Also, the extreme volatility must be respected and accounted for, with smaller position sizes in order to contain risk. This forces smaller position sizes, so that when things calm down, one is not invested heavily enough for the next move higher. Much better to wait for some calm, let prices find an area where there are similar numbers of buyers and sellers, so that emotions calm down and. make it conducive to larger bet sizes. After all, position sizing is everything, and there is no need to step in front of a moving train. If I have to pay slightly higher prices but also have some time that has passed and reset the technicals, so be it, then I can place larger bets for a potentially more extended move higher again.

Gold has already dropped 21.5% from the high last week to the low yesterday, that should be enough to shake out many bulls, but things are volatile right now and a big move up or down from here would not shock me. So, its time to sit and keep our powder dry for the next setup. It could even come in energy, like coal and oil stocks, but my hunch is it will still be in the precious metals, there is very little chance that the bull is over in precious metals and miners.

What a ride its been! I have been busy lately, selling over 60% of our holdings, into the biggest spike in silver in history. We were fortunate to be selling all last week, just in front of the worst clobbering in silver’s history. Absolutely insane action, so I don’t have much time to write here today, just a quick update, and the charts to show the action. There is too much to talk about, like PSLV’s near-record discount to NAV, suggesting this bull market is far from over, as well as how I think this correction might play out, though its already pulled back enough in price that I am interested, but not enough time has passed. We need time for technicals to reset, for the biggest potential gains to resume, but with such a drastic pullback, it also would not surprise me to see silver trade back up to the highs soon, either. In any case, I do plan to add back shares in miners and PSLV, along with the SLVR and maybe SILJ etf, and will be happy to post here when I do. Its been a spectacular run and we have made a fortune, some of our LEAPS are up over 20x, most are up over 10x, as well as many miners’ shares up 7x-10x, truly remarkable gains in less than a year!

Historical moves are being made almost daily now. We still have just under 40% of our precious metals and miners holdings, heavily skewed to the miners now, since there are catalysts to help miners outperform over the next several months, such as blowout earnings reports starting next week, and even bigger upside surprises expected for next quarter’s results (Q1). The bull isn’t over, and sharp, scary corrections are a tell-tale sign that there is more upside to come. Media is now full of people forecasting silver at $200-$500 before the bull is over, a sign of short-term froth in the market, though they will likely be proven correct as this silver bull has already broke several records when compared to all past bull markets in the metal. Even gold, which has dropped 16% from its high already, in just a few days, still had its best monthly gain in the last 100 years, including the beating it took on the last day of January to close the month. The daily chart looks ugly, while stepping back to the weekly or monthly, one can barely see the weakness.

A sharp two-day bounce has silver well over $50 again, and while I cannot pretend to know if the correction is over, at least it is providing some breathing room. On top fo that, several miners are already right back up to their bull market highs, such as HL, and others like DSVSF already made new highs! Its a strong bull, after all, so those patting themselves on tha back for selling everything, now might seem to smart, as they have to decide when to get back in. I was a seller of 1/3 of our positions, but once the corrections reached 25% or more, started buying back into mining shares. No doubt its possible they drop again to test the lows or make new marginal lows, but that is the worst case scenario at this point, in my opinion, and should be followed by new bull market highs soon after. The longer silver stays over $50, the better the odds that the correction is over, and a close this week above $50.10 would be the highest weekly close of this bull market. As I type, silver futures are already at $50.85, though there is still time this week to close the gains. Let’s see what happens Friday at the close, for now here are the charts of the two stocks mentioned above, with their pullback percentages. If I am not mistaken, the SILJ etf also corrected a little over 25% before the big bounce in the last two days, so it is quite possible the worst of the decline is already behind us.

and DSVSF….

SILJ has pulled back over 25% in this correction lasting just a few weeks. While I tend to think the bulk of the downside is now behind us as far as price, given the time of year, weakening stock and crypto markets (risk assets), it won’t surprise me to see metals and miners dragged lower for awhile. While we wait for the moving averages to catch up with price, the best I can see is prices moving sideways as time passes, maybe one or two months before recharging the bull for the next big move higher. I am not selling anything into this weakness, as we already sold one-third of holdings several weeks ago. However, while my intention is to put the funds back work in miners, I have only nibbled here and there so far, in special situations where I think the recent downside has been overdone. Stocks like HOC.L, AAGFF, and ASM would qualify, even then I have only stuck my toe back in the water, and will stick with what we have until those moving averages catch up to price (the 30 WEEK MA for intermediate holding times, or the 12 MONTH MA for longer term holdings).

Meanwhile, fundamentals continue to support the bull, with all-time records for earnings and cash flow being reported now for Q3 results. It is safe to buy dips here now, as long as one doesnt go too heavy, and realizes they will likely have to wait a few months for a large, sustainable rally to take hold. This could happen as early as January, maybe sooner, so I continue to hold about 70% of our positions since its a roaring bull market, after all.

I’ve posted several charts of some of our miners, with the size of the percentage pullbacks they have experienced in just two days, coming off new highs set on Thursday. Readers know that I will not say if that was a short term top or not, only time will tell, but I like that the drops are all uniform in style and size. We also know that corrections in bull markets are sharp and scary, but usually short-lived. This tells me that IF miners can drop about 20-25% from high to low soon, I will be comfortable adding to positions in the stocks mentioned below and others, in order to put the 33% of portfolios we sold, back to work. On the other hand, if miners find a short term bottom early next week, I will sit tight with what we have and hold strong, waiting for the next substantial pullback to buy more.

SILJ reached a level that put it 87% above its 200 day MA, and while extended, this etf can trade as high as 105-120% above the MA before topping out. Still, we see the silver junior etf has pulled back over 11% from its all-time high already. I had charts for HL and CDE, both showing 13.5% declines since last Thursday but I seem to have not saved them correctly. You get the point, they are all down around the same amount since the pullback started, like AG….

I will look for lower prices to do any buying, and sit tight with the 66% of positions we still hold. What is your plan?

Silver just made its highest quarterly close in history. This implies all-time high prices on all the shorter time frames are coming, a mere formality. What this means to investors is Silver will be over $50 soon, its just a couple bucks under it now, and that the $50 zone will likely be the new support area for years to come. Regarding miners, this weekly chart of the SIL etf (larger silver miners) should play out like like silver’s chart, suggesting the all-time high up around $80 will be visited before long. At the current rate of gains, it could be next week, but it could take longer. The important takeaway is to be long and strong the metals and miners.

Another big tell that there is much further upside, is that gold started the party like usual. Not only has gold rocketed in a most impressive bull, it has barely pulled back to catch its breath along the way. Instead, it continues making records every week with no indication of a top. If history repeats, we will first have to see gold get tired and find its new trading range, and for silver to take the lead then far surpass gold’s massive percentage gains. Considering neither metal looks close to topping, with silver just inches from new all-time highs, I don’t think $50 will be the top for the white metal. Think more like $60, $70, or even $100, and that is just for this move higher, not the final bull market highs.